Productive day testing new “signal” tools. Currently, we’re screening companies that have missed earnings, and observing the frequency by which they’re missing earnings. We triangulate this back to potential drivers of earnings misses in order to observe if the market is properly assessing the impact of macro factors on individual company performance. The same analysis is run for guidance estimates, but we have not yet dug deeper.

On the earnings surprise front, 3 sub-industries stand out.

– Health care facilities have been battered due to exposure to hurricane battered Florida

– Retail REITs (particularly GGP) has not fared well recently, impacted by street distaste for malls. Important to observe exposure to Class A properties vs. others for these names

– Leisure products an interesting play, particularly Hasbro. Recent Toys R’ Us bankruptcy may hurt distribution, but only for a year or so. We can dig in to strength of Hasbro gaming franchise and sector dynamics with respect to products coming from movie tie-ins