Prelim menu

Clarified whiskey cocktail

Brainstorm apps to cook at scale

Brainstorm unique, grilled veggies dishes

Mains will be fish

Berries and fresh cream dessert dish

Need long table

Servers

Band / music

Bday?

c’s bday

Figs with Bacon and Chile

milk washed whiskey pandan

Red Snapper and Morels in Port Reduction

Apple Pandowdy

Decoy California Cabernet Sauvignon 2018

NNT / Black Swan

Prediction, not narration, is the real test of our understanding of the world.

More info not necessarily better. Just gives us more confidence

Cumulative advantage and arbitrary contagion: journalism art and markets. Hundreds of book reviews consistently anchor. Only 1 or 2 actual reviews

Far more control defining the criterion

See “the end”; philosophers cited

A black swan may be one to the turkey but not to the butcher

Normally such people exit the gene pool, but academic tenure keeps them around for longer – nnt on sholes citing black swan, 08 vs risk taking. Highly impaired eyesite and school bus

Risk blindness

cohen on druckenmiller

whenever you talk to him, you get insights and thoughts you don’t hear at any other place. a lot of us, we just synthesize what is important and what isn’t important. he’s creating them. and thats impressive.

nt on creativity

“I do not think there is any thrill that can go through the human heart like that felt by the inventor as he sees some creation of the brain unfolding to success . . . Such emotions make a man forget food, sleep, friends, love, everything.”

new yorker profile on safdie brothers

In Boston, they studied with Ted Barron, a historian of contemporary independent American film, who was impressed by their industriousness. “They were always making stuff,” Barron says. “The other students would only make films when they were told to.

One afternoon, at a cheap Thai restaurant in midtown, Josh Safdie tried to explain his complicated feelings about his chosen profession. “I think movies are against nature,” he said. “It’s the most perverted art form.” He was talking about how filmmakers manipulate the world around them, using viewers’ voyeurism to trick them into caring about an invented reality. “It’s trying to replicate life,” he said. “Which is fucked up—and so powerful.”

schwager / balodimas

balodimas: fidelity and the other bohemoths that run massive amounts of public money are only buying what is good at the time. they are never going in there when apple is dislocated or exxon is dislocated. they are always selling then. the smart guys are always on the other side.