Tag Archives: technology

Vipshop, Initial due diligence

Company stats

  • online discount retailer for various brands in the People’s Republic of China
  • limited inventory risk
  • 6.5bn market cap
  • 6.7bn cy15 revenue
  • COGS is 75% of revenue (5.1bn)
  • SG&A is largest expense line item at 71% of gross profit (1.2bn)
  • 4% (260mm) net income margin
  • >20% expected EPS growth
  • multiple compression from China fears

Competition

  • Alibaba (191bn)
  • Dangdang (500mm)
  • JD (31bn)
  • Jumei (700mm)

Collateralizing On-Demand Logistics

The other day, I thought about the best means to (almost) fully automate a digital transaction. I understood from the beginning that the system would require some mode of 1. collateral that required little or no mediation (eg, escrow). I came to the conclusion that the logistical vehicle could naturally act as that medium. Below is a quick schematic of my thoughts: drawit-diagram-3

 

 

 

 

 

A New Frontier in Government Innovation

In her thought piece on Internet Trends in 2015, Mary Meeker of KPCB noted that Government / Regulation / Policy Thinking was the sector of society least impacted by the internet to date. The next two frontiers, according to Meeker, include Healthcare and Education. The most recent intersection between Government and Technology includes the deployment of Healthcare.gov in November 2013. Its impact was telling: on the day of its launch, the website received such a high degree of traffic that only 1% of people were able to enroll on the site during the first week of its operations [2].

Todd Park, the U.S. chief technology officer, initially said on October 6 that the glitches were caused by unexpected high volume when the site drew 250,000 simultaneous users instead of the 50,000-60,000 expected. He claimed that the site would have worked with fewer simultaneous users. More than 8.1 million people visited the site from October 1 to 4 [3].  White House officials subsequently conceded that it was not just an issue of volume, but involved software and systems design issues

One lesson of the fall and rise of HealthCare.gov has to be that the practice of awarding high-tech, high-stakes contracts to companies whose primary skill seems to be getting those contracts rather than delivering on them has to change. ‘It was only when they were desperate that they turned to us,’ says Dickerson [4]. ‘I have no history in government contracting and no future in it … I don’t wear a suit and tie … They have no use for someone who looks and dresses like me. Maybe this will be a lesson for them. Maybe that will change.’ [5]

The main problem associated with the Healthcare.gov launch is that policy makers and officials were preoccupied with whether people would be interested in accessing the site, instead of scaling the site to handle large volumes of traffic. Washington contractors spent $300mm building a site that didn’t work, only to be repaired by the best programmers of the private sector hailing from the likes of Google, Twitter, Facebook, and eBay in a tenth as much time [6].

Attempts at innovation in Education have become apparent, but not widespread. Kahn Academy,  CodeAcademy, and Udemy are examples of web-based learning accessible to most with an internet connection. These tools, however, lack the interaction associated with in-classroom learning. While resources such as StackOverflow, Reddit, and Wall Street Oasis facilitate collaborative reinforcement by providing online forums for users to collaborate with one another, these online communities lack the direct connection of a mentee-mentor relationship. These relationships privilege a pupil when the most difficult part of learning a new subject or group of ideas is asking the correct question in the first place: this is where forums fall short.

In healthcare, companies like athenahealth and Castlight Health have made significant strides in standardizing medical information by easing the means by which by which information is collected and shared amongst doctors and patients. A primary challenge associated with this mission is dealing with cumbersome insurance companies and hospital infrastructure – many of whom lack the technological prowess or incentive to update their infrastructure to better serve patients. Perhaps the most widespread innovation associated with Government by way of technology is the implementation of Intuit’s TurboTax to file IRS Tax returns. It is an intuitive and pleasant experience, an improvement of pen and paper information gathering of the past.

It will be challenging to improve government infrastructure as these institutions provide jobs to many Americans. The Federal Government employs 4.2mm Americans, while States employ a cumulative sum of 3.7mm Americans [7,8]. Technological innovation can and will lead to many jobs lost; perhaps the greatest friction associated with implementing these changes is reallocating human capital to other sectors of the economy. However, it is in the best interest of society to incorporate the best of the private sector – real businesses that have experience deploying usable products – to improve an outdated and inefficient form of governance and governance services.

WeChat and the State of New York have made strides in digitizing and updating government processes as well as communications. WeChat grants citizens with access to appointment for entry-exit documents processing, marriage registration, accessing traffic violation records, driving license points, checking money in transport cards, public accumulation funds, endowment insurance, medical insurance, and real time traffic conditions [9]. The State of New York has made an effort to increase government transparency by providing its citizens access to data on economic development, education, energy & environment, government & finance, health, human services, public safety, recreation, transparency, transportation, and budget.

D.C. traditionally conflates the importance of a task with its cost. millions of dollars [were set aside] to build a website because it was a big, important website. But compare that to Twitter, which took three rounds of funding before it got to about the same number of users as ­Healthcare.gov—8 million to 10 million users. In those three rounds of funding, the whole thing added up to about $60 million [11].

In the age of the internet, it is nonsensical to bear and even perpetuate ineffective modes of data gathering, sharing, and accessibility. Pen and paper forms and mail submissions will soon be vestiges of the past. Waiting in line at the DMV and the sinking feeling associated with discovering that an Amazon Prime package will be delivered via USPS v. UPS or FedEx will (hopefully) be overcome. This frontier represents a significant addressable market opportunity: we can overcome the primitive quibbling in capitol hill and other state legislative chambers and incentivize the most qualified to update our outdated processes will we materialize.

The West Coast mentality could be counterproductive. “There’s an attitude in the entrepreneurial private sector where we don’t care what came before us: We’re going to disrupt it,” Dickerson explains. “But we are not going to disrupt Social Security. That’s a big reason why it’s so hard to make these changes, because you can’t interrupt the flow of operations [11].

Recently, the Obama administration has initiated a program to hire 500 tech employees by the end of 2016 to address infrastructural issues ranging from the IRS to Immigration Services [11]. 140 workers have been hired so far, and various services have already been improved, ranging from increasing access to federal student loan information on the Department of Education Website to increasing the accessibility associated with updating and completing I-90 forms – a historically arduous process that took months to process in the context of the common pen and paper convention – on the Immigration and Naturalization Services website.

Our leaders have recognized that many modes of operational efficiency adopted in the private sector can too be applied to the public sector . This is a relatively new phenomena: only recently have companies like Google, Facebook, and Twitter scaled to degrees sophisticated enough to handle millions of simultaneous users. As demonstrated in the Healthcare.gov fiasco, our government had previously adopted limited expectations associated with the popularity of their programs: only now do they realize that hundreds of thousands – even millions of users – will eagerly access these services if they are provided. Greenfield opportunities exist from a multitude of service organizations: logistics (USPS) can adopt similar tracking and databasing methods similar to those of FedEx, UPS, and Amazon. Information gathering and handling can be streamlined through digital processes which will alleviate brick and mortar infrastructures at the DMV and INS (Immigration and Naturalization Services). The IRS has already made significant strides with its implementation of Intuit’s TurboTax to aid Americans in filing their annual tax returns.

When we streamline these services, we’ll have a greater multitude of benchmarks by which to hold our policy makers accountable. When we digitize access to student loan information or immigration documents, we enable a much more efficient form of Democracy: policy initiatives and improvements can be easily tracked when understood on an engagement basis. We won’t only have information associated with how many users were interested in a prospective service (views on a website) but also understand whether the information was clearly conveyed, leading to higher levels of conversion (counting the number of people who don’t only access a site, but complete all forms, and submit aforementioned forms). These roll-outs, conducted on a macro basis (defined by the total addressable American population with access to the internet) – have the capacity to improve our governments connection to the society it governs. Idea generation is not enough in the age of the internet: implementation and execution are key.


[1] Mary Meeker (27 May 2015). “Internet Trends 2015kpcb

[2] Paul Ford (16 October 2013). “The Obamacare Website Didn’t Have to Fail. How to Do Better Next Time”

[3] Tim Mullaney (6 October 2013). “Obama adviser: Demand overwhelmed HealthCare.gov”. USA Today

[4] Mikey Dickerson had taken a leave from Google in 2012 to help scale the Obama-campaign website and create its Election Day turnout-reporting software. He was subsequently recruited by Todd Park, US Chief Technology Officer to resuscitate Healthcare.gov

[5] Steven Brill (10 March 2014). “Obama’s Trauma Team”

[6] Todd Park, US Chief Technology Officer recruited Gabriel Burt (Civis Analytics), Mikey Dickerson (Google), Paul Smith (DNC Tech Operations), Ryan Panchadsaram (Presidential Innovation Fellows), Mike Abbot (KPCB), Marty Abbott (eBay), and Jini Kim (Google), among several others to resuscitate healthcare.gov in October 2013. The project took 7 weeks.

[7] Historical Federal Worforce Tables: Total Government Employment Since 1962.

[8] US Census, 2013: Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll

[9] Shanghai Daily: Government WeChat Services

[10] Data.NY.Gov: Data Access

[11] John Gertner, “Inside Obama’s Stealth Startup”

The Continued Proliferation of Mobile Payments

Consumers want ubiquity, and is the basis for why Whatsapp was able to drive a premium valuation from facebook. FB messenger has ˜200m users while Whatsapp has ˜˜600m. In order for FB to stay relevant in the face of WeChat + Line (who have already launched mobile payment solutions) it had to beef up its relative scale (Line has ˜600m users, WeChat ˜450m) (side note: interesting that Viber doesn’t have anything yet considering that they’ve got ˜600m users). In this period of tech adoption/ transformation, its interesting that we’ve got so many different apps which address such a simple and logical need (payments). It seems like the future of payments is relevant only to the OS (similar to how texting + phone calls are considered utilities on a regular cell phone). The only reason why Skype + Viber etc exist is to capitalize upon Wi-fi utilization in the face of (relatively) expense data costs imposed by cell phone carriers. At the present time, the afermentioned apps are most poised to capitalize upon mobile payment integration because users have developed a sense of trust and familiarity with those apps. As i mentioned above, the future of mobile payments will be native to the OS. What is the technology best positioned to realize this ubiquity? Bitcoin.

Source for user statistics: http://expandedramblings.com/index.php/how-many-people-use-chat-apps/

Rumors of Blackberry Takeover by Samsung

Samsung proposed an initial price range of $13.35-$15.49 per share, which represents a 38-60% premium over BBRY’s current trading price which implies a 6.0-$7.5Bn valuation.

Samsung could cross-integrate its current security platform with that of Blackberry

Samsung Enterprise Mobility Offerings

Platform: Samsung Knox (Software)

  • Device Security
  • Management
  • Services

Solutions

  • Mobile Security
  • Messaging
  • Real-Time Mobile Communications
  • Applications: education, healthcare, automative, retail & hospitality, transportation and logistics

Products

  • Smartphones
  • Galaxy Note
  • Galxy Tab

Blackberry Enterprise

BES12

  • Scalable architecture
  • Cross-platform BYOD, COPE, COBO
  • IOS, Droid, Windows, BBRY support
  • BBM

Devices

  • Passport
  • Classic

Samsung 2013A Balance Sheet

smsng

Sources:

New Delhi’s Decision to Ban Uber in Response to the Alleged Rape of a Passenger

Recently, New Delhi banned Uber in response to the alleged raping of a passenger by a driver. The UBER model is facing difficulties in India, primarily as a consequence of India’s poorly assembled/enforced justice infrastructure. A prerequisite to the sharing economy is trust. In the United States, it is possible for companies like UBER and AirBnB to succeed because trust exists as a consequence of a (somewhat) successfully constructed infrastructure. In the United States, the infrastructure is assembled such that any violation to a subscribed to code of conduct warrants consequences which can be enforced that deter an individual from committing the action due to the restrictions that may be imposed on the individual if the violation is committed (eg, jail time following a DUI).

This brings to mind a simple idea: the adoption of economic models which are based on sharing are likely correlated with a successfully constructed system of property rights and indicators of other social norms, such as corruption. Perhaps this assertion can be modeled and observed in the future.

Even in countries like the United States, companies like AirBnB and UBER will encounter a rocky road ahead, due to difficulties in adapting regulatory models to effectively address problems raised by these new models. I believe these companies will ultimately prevail. Digital connectivity has enabled individuals to derive value from assets that would otherwise be unused (eg, AirBnB’ing one’s apartment while one is on vacation); decreasing the waste from idleness associated from pure asset ownership and allowing a more effective allocation of general resources. Innovation always precedes regulation. Similar to the irrationality related to blaming Smith and Wesson for the tragic events which occurred at Columbine (and many other schools), the same applies to UBER. The derivative of this problem encompasses a greater scope than blaming new technologies; it is one of adapting innovation to the proper marriage between law, society, and technology within relevant contexts.

Uber Valuation

Preliminary Models, Working Draft

In his analysis on Uber’s valuationAswath Damodaran develops a TAM model which defines Uber’s total addressable market as the yellow cab industry. The two primary levers affecting Uber’s valuation include the following:

  1. Potential Market Size
  2. Target Market

Aswath’s Model (also recreated here):

Picture6

A primary limiting factor of his model is such that Uber’s potential market does not only include the taxi industry.

I take a population based approach to developing a valuation framework for Uber. First, I logged each city which Uber has a presence (from their website). Then, I recorded the population for each of the 225 cities Uber has a presence. The total potential market for Uber to access (so far) is 650MM people. Based on their financials leaked about a year ago, Uber has about 400K active users at a time. This represents less than a tenth of a percentage market penetration (or, 0.068%).

Uber Leaked Financials + Preliminary Analysis

Picture5

I derived key drivers from Uber’s leaked financials that are fundamental aspects of the new model I propose which include

  • Completed rides per active client
  • Revenue per ride

Preliminary Valuation Model – Revenue Build

Picture9

Key Considerations:

  • I assume that Uber will be able to reach .712% market penetration by 2024; which implies 7.4mm active clients of a 1bn person addressable market (growing from 400K active users of a 650mm addressable market 1 year ago)
  • Completed Requests per Active Client – users will continue to access the app with greater frequency as ease of access improves (shorter wait time due to greater supply). Additionally, 96 requests per active client per year is based on the assumption that a user requests 2 rides per week (annualized). This value will need to be modified to consider 1. users that share rides with friends 2. A straight line 52x multiplier is not sufficient to explain usage trends
  • Revenue per Ride – drivers will begin to earn greater revenue per ride due to increased operational efficiency (less stop time with greater usage)

Adobe CQ3 Earnings

Adobe fell 4.7% in after hours trading following its Q3 earnings call. The Company was punished primarily for missing growth estimates related to sales & customer acquisition ($1.01b revenue; $0.28 eps; 502k new subscribers vs. consensus estimates of $1.02b revenue; $0.26 non-gaap eps; 503k new customers).

adobe post market

Closing  just shy of its 50 day moving average ($71.26, $70.73, respectively), Adobe inched closer to its 200 day moving average ($65.56), in after hours trading, closing at $67.45 at 8PM EST.

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Making the transition from single purchase sales structures to recurring revenue subscription models has proven difficult for many technology companies. Investors are unsure how to react to tech sector fundamentals, and these companies suffer when classic fundamentals, such as revenue growth, are reported below expectations.

Adobe is in the midst of its migration to a cloud based subscription business, and I recognize these hiccups in valuation as a prime opportunity to take a position with Adobe, and feel bullish on the stock in the long term.

  • Customer acquisition growth has declined, but mostly because “loyal” subscribers have already made the leap from the one-time purchase model to the cloud subscription model. Adobe ventures in to new territory by tackling the SMB and other consumers and represents a high growth opportunity
  • Meanwhile, revenue will not increase as quickly as anticipated while Adobe takes on the challenge of acquiring new subscribers; however, new subscribers represent a stronger recurring revenue base in the longer term
  • Adobe represents the standard in creative computing. Competitors have tried, and failed to compete with its Creative Suite. The cloud will increase the ease of accessing Adobe’s products and will likely create an incentive for individual consumers to purchase, rather than pirate, Adobe products
  • Lastly, Adobe’s gross margins represent significant room for improvement on a relative basis. As the Company continues to convert customers to its subscription model, margin improvements will be a key metric of analysis during future earnings calls

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