Monthly Archives: February 2016

Gap Stores (GPS) Takeaways from Q4 Earnings

“With a year of transition behind us, I’m confident that we have the right strategies in place to fuel our long-term growth,” said Art Peck, chief executive officer, Gap Inc. “We made significant progress in 2015 transforming our product operating model, enabling us to be more responsive to trends and market conditions, and consistently deliver on-brand product collections.”


  • Athleta grew to 120 stores, opening 15 in 2016
  • $870mm of free cash flow
  • Returned $1.4bn to shareholders

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Physiology of Meditation

A few points from article:

  • Meditation may increase default mode network (DMN) resting state functional connectivity (rsFC) with regions important in top-down executive control (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, dlPFC) per Creswell et al
  • There is growing evidence that this inflammatory process related to depression may be influenced by psychological stress as well as organic inflammatory conditions. These findings suggest that specific influences related to traumatic stress and dissociation could be found in close relationship to increased level of cytokine IL-6 per Raboch et al


SpringOwl VIAB Presentation

*  Key points of personal interest

General Notes: Key Stats to Observe

  • Properties & YouTube Subscribers
  • Studio % Market Share (by Revenue)
  • # of Productions in Top 30 Grossing Films List
  • Network Ratings (eg, MTV, Comedy Central, Nick, Spike, BET, VH1, TV Land)
  • Top Cable Series
  • Advertising Revenue

Material from SpringOwl Report:

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Collateralizing On-Demand Logistics

The other day, I thought about the best means to (almost) fully automate a digital transaction. I understood from the beginning that the system would require some mode of 1. collateral that required little or no mediation (eg, escrow). I came to the conclusion that the logistical vehicle could naturally act as that medium. Below is a quick schematic of my thoughts: drawit-diagram-3






AMC Company Profile

Public Competitors – Movies and Entertainment Industry

Theater Operators

  • Regal Entertainment
  • Cinemark Holdings
  • Carmike Cinemas


  • Toho (Japan)
  • Cineplex (Canada)
  • Carmike Cinemas

Adjacent Companies

Film Studios (Non-conglomerate)

  • Lions Gate Entertainment
  • DreamWorks


  • IMAX

“On the Job With Simple As… My Research Process”


  • What drives revenue?
  • Where is the industry headed?
  • How does management think of the business?
  • Competitive positioning:
    • How does the market see my target?
    • How do competitors see my target?
    • How do customers see my target?
  • Management
    • Incentives: over what horizon?
    • Decision-making: capital allocation
  • // Review
  • Financials
    • 5-7 years analysis
  • Model
    • Growth
    • Returns
    • Cost of Capital (Discount Rate / Required Return)
      • Risk: macro factors, industry/company factors


  • Company / why market is wrong
  • Catalysts
  • Upside %
  • Downside %
  • What do you not know?

Important Factors of Consideration

  • Timing inflection points
  • Understand risk / reward scenarios
  • Determine appropriate cost of capital (required return) for the risk profile of the investment
  • How stock moves with market/macro/micro news

Link to Article:

First Look: Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF)

Lion’s Gate is currently trading at 50% of its NTM P/E 52 week high.

Lion’s Gate is expected to endure a severe decline in profitability in 2016, yet is expected to rebound in 2017.

Products include distribution, film (MockingJay, Hurt Locker, Juno, the Red Violin), television (Mad Men, Orange is the New Black), video.

Trends affecting the company [1] include “cord-cutting” [2] (that affects viewing and advertising revenue) as well as competition from other at-home entertainment, primarily TV shows and videogames.

What differentiates Lion’s Gate from these trends is that  it is a content provider with no networks or cable assets, limiting its dependence on advertising. The biggest challenges to profitability thus far have been limited popularity from Mortedacai (Johnny Depp) and The Hunger Games. Resultantly, lowered guidance has been the main catalyst in driving the stock south. Longer term, the Company’s success is dependent on its ability to deliver “ok” movies at low cost.


[1] Reference: Thumbs Up for Lionsgate

[2] Cord-cutting: shift to internet delivery media from cable and broadcast